USA: With its annual CERAWeek conference fast approaching, energy adviser Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) has received a challenge, a US$100,000 bet that the think tank's June 2007 prediction on world oil capacity is wrong. CERA's opponents is ASPO-USA, a group dedicated to promoting peak oil theory, the idea that over half the world's supply of oil has been used, and is now on decline. ASPO-USA members who have put up money include former BP Chief Petroleum Engineer Jeremy Gilbert, economist Herman Franssen, and energy banker Matt Simmons.
By Matthew DonovanFiled from Houston
In June 2007, CERA predicted that world oil production capacity will reach 112 million b/d by 2017. This figure indicates 107 million b/d of actual production, compared with today's 87 million barrels. Steve Andrews, USPO-USA co-founder, disputes this figure. "That's a vision in search of reality. Anything is possible on paper, but we are betting you can't do that with the drill bit," said Andrews. USPO-USA members called CERA's prediction "misguided, overly optimistic, and out of touch" and pointed out problems with previous CERA projections. Member Bob Kanner said, "We're not just betting our money, we're betting our nation's future."
ASPO-USA has provided a $100,000 letter of credit, and calls on CERA to match the money. The individuals who donated the US$100,000 have agreed to donate any winnings to an energy-focused non-profit group if production in 2017 does not exceed 107 million b/d. The group has also request a "civil dialogue on peak oil" which CERA has previously called for, but declined ASPO-USA invitations for such a debate. Co-founder Jim Baldauf stated, "If the CERA seers really believe their crystal balls, they should call our bet."
source: http://www.energycurrent.com/index.php?id=4&storyid=8698
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