Saturday, March 31, 2007

Oil Peak Could Catch United States Unprepared

WASHINGTON, DC, March 30, 2007 (ENS) - The U.S. government needs a strategy to coordinate and prioritize federal agency efforts to reduce uncertainty about the timing of an oil peak and to advise Congress on how best to mitigate consequences, finds a new report by the Government Accountability Office, GAO, the investigative branch of Congress.

The oil peak is that point when global production reaches its maximum and then can only decline.

The GAO report, published Thursday, says most studies estimate that oil production will peak sometime between now and 2040. But today, a Swedish scientist warned that the peak could come as early as next year.

Fredrik Robelius in the Department of Nuclear and Particle Physics at Uppsala University published his doctoral thesis today in which he says the rate of extraction from giant oil fields is a better indicator of the peak than oil prices.

"The reliability of the oil price as a single parameter can be questioned, as earlier times of high prices have occurred without having anything to do with a lack of oil," said Robelius.

"Instead," he said, "giant oil fields, the largest oil fields in the world, can be used as a parameter."

Future demand for oil is expected to increase annually by 1.4 to 1.7 percent, Robelius says.

"A worst-case scenario sees a peak in 2008, and the best-case scenario, following a 1.4 percent demand growth, peaks in 2018," Robelius predicts.

Texaco oil workers drill a vertical compound well. (Photo courtesy NASA)
The GAO says the range of estimates it found for the date of peak oil is wide because the timing of the peak depends on "multiple, uncertain factors" that will help determine how quickly the oil remaining in the ground is used.

These factors include the amount of oil still in the ground; how much of that oil can ultimately be produced given technological, cost, and environmental challenges as well as potentially unfavorable political and investment conditions in some countries where oil is located; and future global demand for oil.

Demand for oil will, in turn, be influenced by global economic growth and may be affected by government policies on the environment and climate change and consumer choices about conservation, the GAO said.

In any case, the GAO said, the federal government is not well prepared at this time. Federal efforts are spread across multiple agencies and are not focused explicitly on peak oil.

A giant oil field contains at least 500 million barrels of recoverable oil. Only one percent - 507 out of some 47,500 oil fields in the world - are giants, and the majority are found in the countries surrounding the Persian Gulf.


Fredrik Robelius is a PhD student in the Uppsala Hydrocarbon Depletion Study Group at Sweden's Uppsala University. (Photo courtesy Uppsala University)
Over 60 percent of the 2005 production and about 65 percent of the global ultimate recoverable reserve is from giant fields, says Robelius.

But giant fields are things of the past, the Swedish researcher says, since a majority of the largest giant fields are over 50 years old, many have begun to decline, and the discovery trend of fewer giant fields with smaller volumes is clear.

Robelius developed a model, based on past annual production and the ultimate recoverable reserve, to forecast future production from giant fields.

"In all scenarios," Robelius says, "peak oil occurs at about the same time as the giant fields peak."

The world's four largest oil fields are - Ghawar in Saudi Arabia, which produces 4.5 million barrels per day, Cantarell in Mexico, which produces nearly two million barrels per day, Burgan in Kuwait which produces 1.7 million barrels per day and Da Qing in China which produces one million barrels per day.

Oil rig in the Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Louisiana (Photo courtesy NOAA)
The most mature oil region, the continental United States, peaked in 1970, while the latest oil region discovered, the North Sea, peaked in 2001. Both regions continue to decline despite strong demand and high oil prices, which motivates high production rates, Robelius says.

"The declining trend in giant field discoveries suggests the good prospects are already drilled," he says.

In the United States, alternative fuels and transportation technologies face challenges that could impede their ability to mitigate the consequences of a peak and decline in oil production, unless sufficient time and effort are brought to bear, the GAO said in its report.

"Although corn ethanol production is technically feasible, it is more expensive to produce than gasoline and will require costly investments in infrastructure, such as pipelines and storage tanks, before it can become widely available as a primary fuel," the GAO said.

Key alternative technologies currently supply the equivalent of only about one percent of U.S. consumption of petroleum products, and the Department of Energy projects that even by 2015, they could displace only the equivalent of four percent of projected U.S. annual consumption.

In such circumstances, the GAO said, "an imminent peak and sharp decline in oil production could cause a worldwide recession."


Oil rig off the coast of Saudi Arabia (Photo courtesy Saudi Embassy in Washington, DC)
But if the peak is delayed, these technologies have a greater potential to mitigate the consequences, the GAO said.

To better prepare for a peak in oil production, GAO recommends that the Secretary of Energy work with other agencies to establish a strategy. In letters to the GAO, the Energy Department and Department of the Interior agreed with most aspects of the report.

The Department of Energy projects that the technologies could displace up to 34 percent of U.S. consumption in the 2025 through 2030 time frame, if the challenges are met.

"The level of effort dedicated to overcoming challenges will depend in part on sustained high oil prices to encourage sufficient investment in and demand for alternatives," the GAO said.

In its letter to members of Congress who requested the report, the GAO writes that U.S. consumers paid $38 billion more for gasoline in the first six months of 2006 than they paid in the same period of 2005, and $57 billion more than they paid in the same period of 2004, in large part because of rising oil prices, which reached a 24 year high in 2006 when adjusted for inflation.

Robelius writes that new oil discoveries are not likely to help ease consumers over the peak oil point.

"Although contributions from new field developments and deepwater is large, production from the 333 giant oil fields still dominates," says Robelius. "Despite optimistic production forecasts of the undoubtedly large resources of Orinoco and Alberta, their contribution is not enough to offset peak oil."

The Robelius study, "Giant Oil Fields - The Highway to Oil: Giant Oil Fields and their Importance for Future Oil Production," is online here.

Monday, March 26, 2007

Chaves / Chavis / Chavez Genealogy

I have done extensive genealogy research and it is evident that you
have done some also. You
mentioned in the Chavez Family website that you come from the Don Pedro
Gomez Duran y Chaves
lineage. I too, am from this very same ancestry; in fact conjoined
through multiple family lines. My
ancestry is Chaves and Sanches on my fathers side and Romero and Duran
on my mothers side.
This Duran y Chaves family was originally Rico and not Chaves; his
father was Hernan Sanches
Rico. The family Rico were Jewish traders and merchants that would
travel from Spain to France,
Italy, Greece and other parts of the Mediterranean Sea selling their

Some of my Chaves family ancestry takes a different twist and actually
comes from Chaves, Portugal

Chaves; This family name is an ancient name from Portugal. Originally
called Flavis (Latin) by
Romans in Lusitania (Portugal). Original meaning was "healing waters".
Roman legions and even
Hadrian, Caesar, and other Roman personalities would go to the healing
waters of Flavis. The name
was a location not a person or family. Later, during the time when the
Portuguese language came into
its own, the spelling and pronunciation changed. All words with
Fl_____, were changed to Ch_____
but pronounced as if Sh____. So, Flavis became Chavis, same meaning
also. Some people still have
this spelling, particularly in Louisiana. After, the Roman occupation
the Portuguese language evolved
again. The name now took on a similar spelling, Chaves; but a new
meaning was tied to it. This
meaning you know, is, keys like Llaves in Spanish. The name was still
connected to a place not to
people. In about the 1200's the Moors, Catholics and Jews all occupied
Iberia and the Moors were
in a big uproar for control. In the region of Chaves, Portugal; the
Moors were ransacking and
causing general unrest. King Enriques of Portugal was very concerned
and was eventually driven into
war. He called upon the families of the region and found himself
compelled to request help from all
sources. He had cousins, the Lopes family. He called upon them for
help. The family responded
without hesitation. This Lopes family, four brothers and one sister
lead the battle and successfully
defeated and drove the Moors from the local of Chaves, Portugal. King
Enriques in all his
benevolence and generosity created the position of "Chaves" (similar to
the Order of Santiago of
Spain). The family were all knighted and made "Chaves", meaning "the
keys to the victory over the
Moors". The Chaves family is recognized all over the world as having
come from warrior clans. The
name, Chaves, symbolizes courage, royalty, honor, dedication to duty
and is easily recognized as
one of the most known Hispanic names in the world. The word Chaves is
pronounced with a distinct
sh, as in shoot or shout. Not the heavy ch that spanish words are
pronounced. The coat of arms is
displayed as five keys on the face with other ornate depictions, these
keys are symbolic of the five
original Chaves. Two of the brothers names are known; one brother was
named Rui(z) Lopes and
the other brother was Garci(a) Lopes. All these Chaves (Lopes) were
Jewish. Check out the
Judaica Encyclopedia at any synagogue.

Another view on the Chavez name. Some Chavez' ancestry is linked to a
person named Chavo. So,
people with the surname Chavez literally means "Son of Chavo". The ez,
is similar to other cultures,
sort of like Mc; Mac-Scottish/Irish or Ben-Hebrew or Bar- Arabic. Other
names with same
connotation: Sanchez, son of Sancho; Martinez, son of Martin; etc.

I have traced my ancestry interestingly enough to the Bentacurt and
Perdoma/o connection you
mentioned in the website as well. Both these people were in the Canary
Islands for very basic
reasons; they were Portuguese Jews hiding from the Spanish and
Portugese Inquisitions.

As much as the good Catholics of New Mexico would like to hide or
forget the past, the colonists
and others who came here were not originally Catholic, nearly all were
Jews; they came here seeking
freedom of religion after they were driven out of Spain and Portugal by
the "Edict of Expulsion".
They in fact paid Portugal and Spain many millions of cruzados (gold
coins) for their freedom. The
church ignored this and came after them anyway. The church demoralized,
broke down and crushed
the spirit of most of my ancestors, the church also held back food and
often times "bad" priests
would rape Jewish women in the process of cleansing them, and in many
instances would burn them
alive at the stake.

Check out author Seymour Leibman and Cecil Roth or others like them on
the history of Mexico
and the discovery of the new world; check out inquisitional records
from Mexico City and Lima,
Peru. People with names like Trevino, Caravajal, Rodrigues, etc. were
brutally tortured, imprisoned
and eventually burned alive at the stake. I am an ancestor of many such
people and their progeny.

The Sanches family I am from is linked to Rodrigo Sanches; he was an
explorer and 100% full Jew.
He was on Christopher Columbus ships when they discovered the New
World. Sanches cousin was
the treasurer to King Ferdinand and Queen Isabella; his name was
Gabriel Sanches a full Jew.
Gabriels' uncle was a man named Alazar Ussuf another full Jew.

The Duran family I am from is linked to Rabbi Moises HaLevy Duran; he
was a Jewish Talmudic

If, you dig deep enough you may or may not like what you find.

I believe a truthful history should depict the facts, not a sugar
coated Catholic Church rendition
painted by Fray Angelico Chavez. He knew the truth but didn't want
problems with the church. In
his book, "Origins of New Mexico Families"; he neglected to edit out
one very important clue to the
past. In the listings of the family name Romero; he depicts the death
of a Romero man; this Romero
dies a strange death and has been accused of a minor crime (heresy and
witchcraft); the person
recording all accountings of the incident was none other than an
inquisitional scribe. The inquisition
was here to stop people from being Jews. The Spanish Inquisition
reached well into New Mexico; a
father Perea located at Quari Mission near Mountainair, NM was the head
of the Inquisition in NM
in the historical past.

My research has gone as far back in history as you wish it to go. Some
depictions are as long ago as
AD 70 in Spain and others reach back into biblical times in Jerusalem.
All of the people I have
discussed in this letter ancestrally came from Israel.

In the old testament; in the book of Obadiah it is written as a
prophecy that "the Jerusalemites shall
inherit Sepharad". I will explain; the Jerusalemites occupied Jerusalem
at the time of the Roman
conquest of Palestine (Israel/Judaea) AD 67-70 time frame. The
destruction of the second temple
took place at this time also. Odabiah prophesied that a group of people
would conquer Jerusalem;
those people of Jerusalem would inherit Sepharad. Sepharad is the
hebrew word for Spain. All of
the Jews from Jerusalem went to Spain for relief from the Romans as
prophesied by Obadiah.

Jews from Spain and Portugal are called Sephardic Jews.

Further back in time is a reference in the Book of Ruth on the
genealogy of Judah. A son of Judah
was named Perez; through him and his wife the people were called;
Perezites. Perez was the
grandfather of King David of Israel. Today, many Sephardic Jews still
bear the name of Perez.
Many Spanish and Portuguese names ending with es or ez can trace
ancestry back to King David
and Perez/Judah lineage.

My feelings on the history of New Mexico and the New World is that the
history was not and is not
still portrayed or written accurately at all and must be corrected.

Thanks, Keith Alejandro Chaves
Albuquerque, New Mexico

Thursday, March 22, 2007

The mysterious great seal....

The great seal on the US $1 bill. Why is it there, what does it all mean? Source: US Government.

Wednesday, March 21, 2007

Resolution on Circus Animals in Minneapolis

I am proud to have been a part of getting this resolution passed. It means less animal cruelty for the sake of entertainment. All beings deserve to live quality lives. I hope the full city council approves this soon.


Resolution as follows:

5th Congressional District Green Party
March 17, 2007
Drafted by Eric Makela, Co-Founder, Green Party Animals
(612) 782-2118

WHEREAS, Circuses featuring wild animals are held every year in Minneapolis;

WHEREAS, the Green Party's endorsed Minneapolis City Council member, Cam
Gordon, actively supports a propos
ed ordinance which would ban circuses that
feature wild animals,

WHEREAS, circuses that don't use animals are available for hire b
organizations that normally hire circuses with animals;

WHEREAS, the Green Party of Minnesota's Platform states, "Animals used for
entertainment such as racing, gambling, zoos, circuses and the film industry
are subject to abuses that are often hidden from the public. Forcing
non-human animals to live lives that are unnatural or unhealthy to th
species for the sake of entertainment is unjust." (Sec N, Item 3);

THEREFORE BE IT RESOLVED, the 5th Congressional District Green Party of
Minnesota supports a proposed ban on wild-animal circuses that will be
introduced before the Minneapolis City Council.


Saturday, March 17, 2007

The Great Global Warming Swindle: Response

The key argument mounted by Martin Durkin in the Channel 4 documentary, ‘The Great Global Warming Swindle’, was that the sun’s activity had more to do with global warming than levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. We asked Dr Richard Betts of the Met Office Hadley Centre to explain the scientific evidence for why the sun is not to blame for current climate change. He responded:

Author:Richard Betts

"Although the sun can play a part in climate change, there is overwhelming scientific evidence that it is not the cause of the climate warming that we have seen over recent decades.

There have been proposed 2 mechanisms for how the sun might might be influencing climate. The first is that changes in the amount of solar radiation given off by the sun might be to blame. Solar irradiance has been monitored continuously for the last 28 years, and although an 11-year cycle has been well-established, no significant long-term trend has been detected over that period. The warming trend in global temperatures over recent decades therefore cannot be explained by changes in solar irradiance, simply because there has been no overall change in solar irradiance over that time.

Earlier records show an increase in solar irradiance in the early part of the Twentieth Century, followed by a brief decrease before the current period of no significant trend. Global temperatures also underwent a warming until around 1940 and a subsequent cooling until around 1950, but then warming set in again and became more rapid. Computer models of climate suggest that solar irradiance changes may well have been a significant cause of climate change until the mid-Twentieth Century. However, the correlation between solar irradiance and global temperature breaks down after the 1960s as temperatures rose while solar irradiance did not.

Over tens and hundreds of thousands of years, the amount of energy received by the Earth from the sun has changed because of changes in the Earth's orbit and the tilt of its axis. These changes led to the coming and going of ice ages in the past and are part of a natural cycle of climate change. However, these changes take many thousands of years and are therefore much too slow to account for climate changes seen over a few decades.

The other hypothesis is that changes in cosmic rays associated with solar cycles might affect cloud cover and hence influence climate. However, while cloud cover was reported to be correlated with cosmic ray fluxes some time ago, this correlation has broken down as more years of data have become available. The available data therefore do not support the cosmic ray hypothesis."

Sunday, March 11, 2007

imperfect Mandazi recipe


1 egg, beaten
1/2 cup sugar
1/2 cup milk
2 Tbsp. butter, melted
2 cups white flour
2 tsp. baking powder

Mix all the ingredients together, adding more flour if necessary. The dough should be soft, but not sticky. Roll the dough on a lightly floured board until it is about 1/4 inch think. Cut into triangles and fry in hot oil.


I didn't get this recipe from Phanice, but found online. This is the exact recipe I tried. Don't recommend it until I find a better recipe version!
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